Stock Market Indicators & Economic Dashboard
- is our most aggressive model, trading the
VIX volatility index. VIX is very volatile, making this strategy high-risk, with large drawdowns. In backtesting, the CrystalBull Vixen™ model yielded insane, unbelievable results. Click the gauge to see its use in
VIX ETF trading.
- In our opinion, this is our best
stock market timing indicator. After studying current economic data, this is our best estimate for current short-term market direction. In backtesting, the CrystalBull Matador™ has been very accurate in finding overbought or oversold conditions, pivot or reversal points. Click the gauge to see its use in
ETF trading.
- This is our near-term stock
market timing indicator. The CrystalBull Trading Indicator has been quite accurate in finding near-term overbought or oversold conditions. Click the gauge to see its use in
timing the market.
- This is the best indicator of
macroeconomic conditions that we have seen. Poor macroeconomic conditions coincide with secular bear markets, and are best avoided by stock market investors. Click the gauge to analyze
macroeconomics vs the stock market.
-This is our best indicator for the medium-term stock
market trend, and is updated monthly. This algorithm looks for market tops and bottoms to be established, so may lag the exact market reversal points by a short period. This
market timing model is for long-term investors, who seek to avoid secular bear markets. Click the gauge to see our current
market trend chart.
is our more sophisticated version of the old "
Sell in May and go away!" adage. This model considers seasonal tax and retirement account payments, along with the US presidential election cycle in structuring a
stock market strategy. This market timing model has been optimized using backtesting of time periods going back decades. We do not place great trust in this model in
timing the market going forward.
seeks to find overbought and oversold conditions based on trader sentiment. A high Put-Call ratio indicates a bearish mood among traders (which is a bullish indicator), and vice versa. Thus, this is a "contrarian"
market timing indicator, which is a requirement of the "buy low - sell high" objective.
is another contrarian
market indicator, measuring investor sentiment. A high volatility index (VIX) signals higher premiums for stock options, which usually occurs after a market selloff. This timing method seeks out unsustainable changes in option premiums, as a stock market strategy.
is an older, rather simplistic method of determining rapid market movements. This algorithm measures stock price changes over the last 14 trading days, and determines a pattern. This
market timing system does find many unsustainable (reversal) points, but misses some major moves. Thus, its accuracy has diminished in recent years.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence) measures recent price trends, and attempts to time the market by projecting current trends. This market timing method may miss major moves, but may be suited for long-term investors who seek to avoid secular
bear markets. Click the gauge to see our current
MACD chart.
is the primary, most important measurement of the US economy However, since the GDP data are released well after the sampling periods, and revised for months in the future, Real GDP is difficult to use in a stock market strategy. It is a coincident indicator, at best, and not a
stock market investment alert. Click this meter to view
Real GDP and the stock market.
is a widely-followed data set for market timers. Rising Personal Incomes yield more consumer spending, as well as more cash inflows into the stock market. Because these data releases lag their sampling periods, and are revised for many months, they are difficult to use to
time the stock market.
data releases are highly-anticipated, and tend to move the stock market greatly. Market timers use this data to judge general strength and weakness of the US economy, to predict business conditions going forward. New Job creation stalls during recessions, and can be a
stock market indicator. Thus, this may be a coincidental data series. But many investors use the New Jobs number as a
stock market signal.
may be a leading indicator to New Jobs data. Job Openings stall before recessions, and may be a leading
stock market indicator. Click the gauge to compare
Job Openings vs. the S&P 500.
measures the strength and weakness of the US economy, as well as inflationary wage pressure. Personal Income data is composited across the entire population, while Hourly and Weekly Earnings measure just the income of employees. This is an important distinction, and both are needed to judge the economy and stock market potential.
is the crucial measurement of the US economy. Economic growth requires high employment levels, and the stock market rises and falls based on economic growth. Thus some market timers use the Unemployment release as a
buy signal or
sell signal. Note the relationship between Unemployment, recessions, and the market on this
Unemployment effects on the stock market chart.
is considered by many to predict the near term strength in retail and consumer goods stocks. A trading system which buys stocks during periods of high consumer sentiment levels, and sells stocks when levels are lower is considered. Consumer Sentiment does react to stock market conditions, however, so at times, this is a lagging indicator.
is a data set closely followed by many stock traders, and can move the market quickly on release dates. However, as these data measure sales conditions in the past, this may be a
lagging indicator for
market timers. It is still an interesting study.
are important measurements of current retail economic trends. Retail businesses usually attempt to keep inventories lower, to save costs. Rising inventories usually signal that sales have come in lower than expected, which is a
bearish sign, and may be a
leading indicator of a downward trend in retail stocks.
- Interest rates are a key indicator of the current state of the economy. The Federal Funds Rate and Prime Rate are base lines for interest rates borrowers must pay to expand their businesses. High rates slow borrowing and expansion, and vice versa.
is a close proxy for current money market rates, which determines the short term income an investor receives while his or her investable funds are not invested in the market. Higher, safe returns are competition for investable dollars, and must be considered in predicting cash flows into or out of the market. Low rates can signal excess cash on the sidelines, and spur stock market investments.
- Treasury Notes and Bonds are safe, competitive investments vis-a-vis the stock market. A comparison of Treasury Rates versus the inverse of the Price-to-Earnings ratio is a popular
market timing method for predicting the forthcoming trend. High Treasury rates are bearish, and vice versa. Click the gauge to compare
US Treasuries to the S&P 500.
here is defined as the difference between the 30 Year Treasury Bond and 3 Month Treasury Bill rates. A negative (inverted) Yield Curve (where long term rates are higher than short term rates) shows an economic instability where investors fear recessionary times ahead. Yield Curve studies have been effective in stock market timing systems. Click the gauge to see the correlation between the
Yield Curve and recessions.
(Tbill Sterling Overnight Spread) is the difference between the SONIA (Sterling Overnight Index Average) rate and the three-month T-bill interest rate. A high TSO Spread indicates higher perceived risk in lending, as interbank rates rise against risk-free treasury rates, and is generally a bearish signal, a leading indicator, in stock market timing studies. Click the gauge to view the
TSO Spread correlation to the stock market.
are obvious candidates for study, as the housing market accounts for roughly 5% of GDP. Rates typically respond to market conditions, however, so are usually a lagging stock market indicator. Recent manipulation by the Federal Reserve has distorted the study for decades to come.
- (Monetary Base, M0, M1, M2, M3) changes by the Federal Reserve are one of the most important causes of economic trend reversals. Many argue that all booms, busts, bubbles, and crashes are caused by Federal Reserve Money Supply manipulation vis-a-vis the free market. The stock market is dependent on economic trends, so Monetary Supply is an important parameter in
stock market systems. Click to
correlate Money Supply to the stock market.
(Personal Consumption Expenditures) measures consumer spending in real, inflation-adjusted dollars, so is valuable in GDP studies, and retail and consumer goods stock analysis. High PCE can also indicate higher demand-push inflationary times ahead, so can be a leading input.
measures the 10 year treasury rate vs. TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities). Since both trade on the open market, this is a good measurement of inflation rates investors are anticipating going forward. Lower Expected Inflation generally indicates bearish sentiment.
measures inflation at the consumer level. Inflation is a distortion in price measurements over time, and must be accounted for in stock market and economic studies, and stock timing.
measures inflation at the manufacturer level, and is driven primarily by commodity, material, transportation, and wage prices. Rising manufacturing costs can cut into corporate profits, and reduce consumer spending in real terms, so is important to measure in investment studies.
is an important component of both consumer and producer costs, and can be a leading indictor in measurements of inflation. Rising energy costs act like a tax on consumers, and can lead to reduced sales, spending, and economic growth. Oil Prices can be a leading indicator of the stock market. Click to compare
Oil Prices to the stock market.
measures the percentage of current manufacturing output versus output at full capacity. As Capacity Utilization approaches 100, manufacturers will need to expand facilities, and may face additional costs and/or inflationary pressures. A low Capacity Utilization signifies slow growth or recessionary times. Click this meter to view
Capacity Utilization history.
measures output from the US manufacturing base. High Production signifies a strong, vibrant economy, and can stimulate a
bullish stock market.
measures the efficiency (output vs. labor costs) of manufacturing output in the US. High Productivity means manufacturers are getting more output from their workers, and is a bullish signal for the manufacturing sector. It can also result from recent layoffs, so care is needed in its use.
highlight inflationary wage pressures at the manufacturer level, per unit of output. Higher Labor Costs can lead to lower corporate profits, which can be bearish to manufacturing stocks. Click to view the recent history in our
Unit Labor Costs chart.
is a valuable data set to follow in determining the general strength or weakness of the US economy. Rising sales generally indicate consumer confidence and disposable income, and can signify a
bull market for stocks.
generally follow rising wages and economic growth, and indicate economic strength. Since Housing represents a rather large portion of gross domestic product, it is an important data set in investment strategies.
measure construction starts for new houses, and is an important indicator for home manufacturers, as well as other housing-related companies. Housing makes up a considerable portion of US GDP.
Stock Market Indicators & Economic Dashboard
Mouse over to see a short description of the economic indicator's use in timing the market.
