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The CrystalBull Stock Market Trend Indicator Chart, For Monthly Market TimingThis chart shows the proprietary CrystalBull Trend Indicator in relation to the S&P 500. This is the best indicator we have found for the current stock market monthly trend. This algorithm looks for market tops and bottoms to be established, so may lag the exact market trend reversal points by a short period. This market timing model is for long-term investors who seek to avoid secular drawdowns. Since 1970, following this indicator (in market when above zero, out of market when below) would have beaten a Buy-and-Hold strategy by %.
From Dec. 31, 1969 through Dec. 31, 2021, following the CrystalBull Trend Indicator would have, hypothetically, produced a Total Return 1.17 times that of a Buy-and-Hold strategy (26558.67% vs. 22657.96%), with an average compound annual total return of 11.34% APR (The compound annual growth rate of the S&P 500 during this period was just 11.0% APR). This Indicator had 27 round turn trades over 52.0 years, and was in the market (exposed to market risk) 73.1% of the time.
HOW TO USE: The aqua-blue line in the bottom chart represents the CrystalBull Trend Indicator. It is calculated at the end of each month, based on the currently available stock market price data. Values above zero indicate a possible positive trend going forward, and values below zero indicate a possible negative trend going forward.
NOTE: Use the "Legend" link above the CrystalBull Trend Indicator chart to hide/display/isolate various other experimental stock market indicators, by clicking on the corresponding series.