= recessions  
( HINT:  Click-and-drag left-to-right on a chart to zoom in to a specific date range.  Double-click on a chart to zoom back out. )

CrystalBull Calendar Indicator

This chart shows the CrystalBull Calendar Indicator (yellow) in relation to the S&P 500.  The CrystalBull Calendar Indicator trades solely based on the month of the year.  It is a modernized version of the "Sell in May and go away" adage.

It is important to note that CrystalBull.com does not place much weighting in this type of indicator.  We believe history will show that the large market selloffs avoided by this model were coincidentally late in the year.  While there is a valid consideration for the momentum of cash flows in late December through April (resulting from the US income tax code vis-a-vis retirement account funding), and the doldrums of Summer and Fall, the returns demonstrated in the model above will most likely not withstand the test of time.  This model will most likely continue to outperform buy-and-hold because of seasonal cash flows, but not by the wide margin of the past.

The top chart shows the S&P 500 (blue), the corresponding S&P 500 with dividends reinvested (green), and the S&P 500, traded using the CrystalBull Calendar Model (yellow).  It is assumed that, when out of the market, the Calendar Model earned a rate equivalent to the 3 Month CD rate.

Since 1970, a 'buy and hold' strategy has yielded a 38602.0% Total Return (including dividends), while adherence to the CrystalBull Calendar Model for trading has yielded a 210651.0% Total Return.

CLICK HERE to compare this timing model to theoretically-perfect timing models.

Frequently asked questions

What is the CrystalBull Calendar Indicator?

It is a seasonal timing model that trades only on the month of the year—a modernized “Sell in May” framework. CrystalBull charts it versus the S&P 500 to illustrate calendar effects, not as a primary proprietary signal stack.

Does CrystalBull recommend relying on it?

No. The page states CrystalBull.com does not place much weighting in this type of indicator. Management argues large historical selloffs avoided by the model were often coincidentally late-year and that the wide past margin versus buy-and-hold is unlikely to persist unchanged.

How does it differ from Matador or Macro?

Calendar ignores prices and macro data entirely; position depends on the calendar month. Matador and the Trading Indicator are proprietary technical/contrarian models; Macro and Trend are monthly proprietary gauges of conditions or price trend.

What return assumption is used when out of the market?

The published illustration assumes that when out of equities, the Calendar Model earned a rate equivalent to the 3-month CD rate.

What are the limitations?

Seasonality can change as market structure, flows, and policy evolve. CrystalBull itself cautions that demonstrated historical returns will most likely not withstand the full test of time at the same margin, even if mild seasonal cash-flow effects continue.