= recessions
( HINT: Click-and-drag left-to-right on a chart to zoom in to a specific date range. Double-click on a chart to zoom back out. )
3-Month T-Bill Rate Chart
This chart shows the 3-Month Treasury Bill rate, Fed Funds Rate, S&P500 Dividend Rate, and CPI, in relation to the S&P 500. The 3-Month T-Bill rate serves as a close proxy for current money market rates, which determines the short term income an investor can receive while his or her investable funds are not invested in the stock market. Higher, safe returns are competition for investable dollars, and must be considered in predicting cash flows into or out of the market. Low rates can signal excess cash on the sidelines, and spur stock market investments. This chart previously showed the 3-month CD rate; that series was discontinued at the end of 2023, so the whole history now uses the 3-month T-bill.NOTE: Use the Legend link above the 3-Month T-Bill Rate chart to display hidden Dividend Rate and CPI values.