Money Supply & Stock Market Chart
This chart shows the year-over-year changes in Money Supply ( Monetary Base, M1, and M2 ), in Real (adjusted for inflation) terms, in relation to the S&P 500. Money Supply changes by the Federal Reserve are one of the most important causes of economic trend reversals. Many argue that all booms, busts, bubbles, and crashes are caused by Federal Reserve Money Supply manipulation vis-a-vis the free market. The stock market is dependent on economic trends, so Monetary Supply is an important parameter in stock market timing systems.NOTE: Use the Legend link above the Real Money Supply chart to hide or display various Money Supply components.
Monetary Base (aka 'Money Base', or 'M0') : The total of all currency (banknotes and coins) and commercial banks' reserves with the central bank. This is the narrowest definition of money supply, consisting only of the most liquid forms of money. Think of the Monetary Base as 'M0'.
M1 : Equals the total of all currency, plus checkable deposits and traveler's checks (assets that can be used to pay bills and debts). M1 does not include the bank reserves included in the Monetary Base.
M2 : Equals M1, plus savings deposits, money market deposits, and time deposits less than $100,000. For many, M2 is the figure to watch in forecasting inflation.
Frequently asked questions
What does the CrystalBull Money Supply chart measure?
It charts year-over-year changes in real Monetary Base, M1, and M2 versus the S&P 500. CrystalBull argues money-supply shifts by the Federal Reserve are among the most important causes of economic trend reversals and therefore matter for timing systems.
What is the difference between Monetary Base, M1, and M2 on this page?
Monetary Base (M0) is currency plus commercial-bank reserves at the central bank. M1 equals currency plus checkable deposits and traveler’s checks (excluding those reserves). M2 equals M1 plus savings deposits, money-market deposits, and time deposits under $100,000—often watched when forecasting inflation.
How does this relate to the Quantitative Easing study?
The QE effects page analyzes how large Fed asset purchases flowed into bank reserves and money aggregates. Use Money Supply for ongoing YoY liquidity context; use the QE study for the historical mechanism and unintended consequences.
How often should I check it?
Official money aggregates are published on a regular Fed/H.6-style schedule (typically weekly/monthly depending on the series). CrystalBull’s interactive chart is for ongoing comparison with equities; refresh as new aggregates and CPI adjustments post.
What are the limitations?
Definitions and Fed facilities change over time (reserves interest, RRPs, etc.), which can alter how Base/M1/M2 map to “stimulus.” CrystalBull’s framing is interpretive—money supply is an input, not a complete trading system by itself.