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( HINT:  Click-and-drag left-to-right on a chart to zoom in to a specific date range.  Double-click on a chart to zoom back out. )

The CrystalBull Stock Market Trend Indicator Chart, For Monthly Market Timing

This chart shows the proprietary CrystalBull Trend Indicator in relation to the S&P 500.  This is the best indicator we have found for the current stock market monthly trend.  This algorithm looks for market tops and bottoms to be established, so may lag the exact market trend reversal points by a short period.  This market timing model is for long-term investors who seek to avoid secular drawdowns.  Since 1970, following this indicator (in market when above zero, out of market when below) would have beaten a Buy-and-Hold strategy by %.

From Dec. 31, 1969 through Jun. 30, 2026, following the CrystalBull Trend Indicator would have, hypothetically, produced a Total Return 1.1 times that of a Buy-and-Hold strategy (41791.46% vs. 38003.26%), with an average compound annual total return of 11.28% APR   (The compound annual growth rate of the S&P 500 during this period was just 11.09% APR).  This Indicator had 30 round turn trades over 56.5 years, and was in the market (exposed to market risk) 73.6% of the time.

We should not expect similar returns going forward, out of sample. This is not a get-rich-quick scheme. We hope to capture most of the gains of a buy-and-hold strategy while limiting the damage caused by account drawdowns.

HOW TO USE:  The aqua-blue line in the bottom chart represents the CrystalBull Trend Indicator.  It is calculated at the end of each month, based on the currently available stock market price data.  Values above zero indicate a possible positive trend going forward, and values below zero indicate a possible negative trend going forward.

NOTE:  Use the "Legend" link above the CrystalBull Trend Indicator chart to hide/display/isolate various other experimental stock market indicators, by clicking on the corresponding series.

Frequently asked questions

What is the CrystalBull Trend Indicator?

It is CrystalBull’s proprietary price-based monthly trend model versus the S&P 500. CrystalBull presents it as its preferred medium-term trend gauge for investors focused on avoiding large secular drawdowns rather than trading every swing.

How should long-term investors read it?

Treat values above zero as a possible positive trend and values below zero as a possible negative trend. CrystalBull’s illustrative rule set is in-market above zero and out below zero, evaluated at month-end.

Trend vs Macroeconomic Indicator — which is which?

Trend is built from stock-market price data and can lag confirmed tops and bottoms. Macro watches decaying macroeconomic strength as an earlier warning framework for secular risk. CrystalBull positions Macro as its best longer-term macro view and Trend as its best monthly price-trend view.

How often is it updated?

At the end of each month, using currently available price data.

What limitations matter most?

Lag around reversals is explicit on the page. The algorithm is proprietary. Published performance is hypothetical with a forward-looking disclaimer. It is not a substitute for faster tools like Matador when you need short-term timing.