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Date12/14/6902/06/7604/01/8205/25/8807/19/9409/11/0011/05/0612/29/1202/22/1904/16/25
Chart Legend
Traded
Buy and Hold
S&P 500
S&P 500
-Help: Displays this Help box. Toggle on/off. Or, click this box to hide.
-Balloons: Displays Balloons with text information about each specific point. Toggle on/off. Use arrow keys to move balloon.
-Legend: Displays Legend for chart, giving access to hide/display each series in chart (by clicking). Toggle on/off.
-Show/Hide: Show or hide this chart. Toggle on/off.
-Zoom In on chart: Left-click on starting point, drag to the right, release at end point. (Some browsers allow mousewheel)
-Zoom Out on chart: Double-click. (Some browsers allow mousewheel)
-Move along series: (only applicable when zoomed in) Ctrl + left-click, then drag. (Some browsers allow right-click, then drag. Some browsers use Alt or Option instead of Ctrl)
-Select Point: Left-click point (only displays balloon when Balloons are enabled (see above)).
-Clear Selected Point: Hit ESC key.
-Navigate along Selected Points: Left/right arrows - move backward/forward through the points in the series. Up/down arrows - move between series at approximately the same coordinate.
-Show crosshairs and values for cursor position: Hold Control key while moving cursor
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Date12/14/6902/06/7604/01/8205/25/8807/19/9409/11/0011/05/0612/29/1202/22/1904/16/25
Chart Legend
CB Macro Indicator
CrystalBull Macro Indicator
-Help: Displays this Help box. Toggle on/off. Or, click this box to hide.
-Balloons: Displays Balloons with text information about each specific point. Toggle on/off. Use arrow keys to move balloon.
-Legend: Displays Legend for chart, giving access to hide/display each series in chart (by clicking). Toggle on/off.
-Show/Hide: Show or hide this chart. Toggle on/off.
-Zoom In on chart: Left-click on starting point, drag to the right, release at end point. (Some browsers allow mousewheel)
-Zoom Out on chart: Double-click. (Some browsers allow mousewheel)
-Move along series: (only applicable when zoomed in) Ctrl + left-click, then drag. (Some browsers allow right-click, then drag. Some browsers use Alt or Option instead of Ctrl)
-Select Point: Left-click point (only displays balloon when Balloons are enabled (see above)).
-Clear Selected Point: Hit ESC key.
-Navigate along Selected Points: Left/right arrows - move backward/forward through the points in the series. Up/down arrows - move between series at approximately the same coordinate.
-Show crosshairs and values for cursor position: Hold Control key while moving cursor
= recessions
( HINT: Click-and-drag left-to-right on a chart to zoom in to a specific date range. Double-click on a chart to zoom back out. )
The CrystalBull Macroeconomic Stock Market Indicator Chart, For Longer-Term Market Timing
This chart shows the proprietary CrystalBull Macroeconomic Indicator in relation to the S&P 500, and is updated monthly. In our opinion, this is our best indicator for the longer term stock market trend. This algorithm looks for decaying macroeconomic strength, to warn investors of possible stock market weakness ahead. This market timing model is for long-term investors who seek to avoid secular bear markets.From Dec. 31, 1969 through Mar. 31, 2025, following the CrystalBull Macro Indicator would have, hypothetically, produced a Total Return 6 times that of a Buy-and-Hold strategy (171992.64% vs. 27999.23%), with an average compound annual total return of 14.44% APR (The compound annual growth rate of the S&P 500 during this period was just 10.74% APR). The Indicator had 19 round turn trades over 55.2 years, and was in the market (exposed to market risk) 73.5% of the time.
HOW TO USE: The gold line in the bottom chart represents the CrystalBull Macro Indicator. It is calculated at the end of each month, based on the currently available economic data. Values above zero indicate an expected positive stock market trend going forward, and values below zero indicate a possible negative trend going forward. Click the "log/lin" link at the top-left of the S&P500 chart to see the chart at logarithmic scale. A straight line, in a log scale chart represents consistent exponential growth. Isn't that beautiful? That's exactly what we hope to find. This backtested model captured most of the stock market gains, but avoided the bear markets. Thus, its exponential growth rate is much higher than the buy and hold returns.